If the number of persons in the Congress changes, so will the number of votes in the Electoral College. And it looks like the number of votes in the Congress will in fact be changing. On Tuesday, the Senate achieved cloture broke a filibuster on S. This measure is quite likely to formally pass the Senate soon, be followed up with a vote in the House, and be signed by the President.
As such, polling conducted before this period is tenuous. The specific amount of variance we apply to each state is determined based on an analysis of historical polling data since and is described here. Is the polling in some states more volatile than in others? There is good reason to think that it is. Some states contain more true swing voters than other states.
For instance, in , the amount of volatility in the polling data in a given state has been positively correlated with the number of independent voters in that state, but inversely correlated with the number of African-American voters. Our process accounts for these tendencies, as described here. What is the interrelationship between polling movement in different states? In reality, there is no such thing as national polling movement.
Instead, you have millions of individual voters making up their minds in 50 individual states and the District of Columbia. Like-minded voters, however, can be presumed to change their candidate preferences in similar ways. For instance, relative to national trends, election results in Massachusetts have historically been 90 percent correlated with election results in Rhode Island.
Our simulation accounts for this tendency by applying a similarity matrix, which evaluates the demographic relationships between different states by of a nearest-neighbor analysis as described here. Our process recognizes, for instance, that as the polling in Ohio moves, the polling in a similar state like Michigan is liable to move in the same direction.
On the other hand, there may be little relationship between the polling movement in Ohio and that in a dissimilar state like New Mexico. In our simulation runs, the state-by-state polling movement is architected so as to preserve i the interstate correlations described above; ii the historical relationship between the degree of national polling movement and that in different states — the more the polls move in the aggregate, the more volatile the polling movement in different states, and iii the empirical degree of volatility in the polling numbers within any one particular state see question above.
Is there an empirical basis for this adjustment? State-by-state polling data is hard to come by in years before , and the and cycles may not be representative as they were unusually stable elections. Therefore, there is a little bit of guesswork involved in calibrating the model and determining the appropriate amount of interdependence in polling movement between different states.
But I am convinced that we have a substantially better model with this adjustment than without it. What is the margin of error in the simulation runs? How can there be fractional numbers in the electoral vote counts? For example, Obama winning Rather, we are predicting a probability distribution — the relative likelihood of different outcomes occurring. The electoral vote counts represent an average of thousands of individual simulations, and the average may produce a fractional number of electoral votes.
What do the percentages mean next to each individual state? They are our estimate of the chances that Barack Obama and John McCain will win that state, respectively. What is the significance of the color of the state red-blue-purple in the state summary chart? They reflect the results from that state in States are rendered in purple if the Bush-Kerry margin in those states was within 7. For additional discussion, see here. How many colors are used in the electoral projection map?
There is no specific limit. Rather, states are colored on a red-white-blue gradient based on the current win percentage in each state. The number of simulations, out of 10,, in which Barack Obama finishes with some precise number of electoral votes such as Simulations that result in a McCain electoral win are colored red, and an Obama win colored blue. Is the distribution normal e.
Not necessarily. Because the polling movement between different states is assumed to be correlated, the distribution can take on a variety of different shapes, with multiple peaks and so on. The distribution will also clearly not be normal in the event that one candidate is headed for a landslide, as there is an upper bound in his number of electoral votes. What do the individual, blue data points represent in the Super Tracker chart? They represent the inferred popular vote outcome based on all polling state and national conducted on that particular day, as determined by analyzing the degree of movement between previous iterations of that poll.
This is not the same as simply averaging the polls, although the Super Tracker usually resembles the Pollster. Instead, the red trendline curve represents our best estimate of the current state of the election. For further background on the Super Tracker chart, please see Step 2 above. What are Tipping Point States? A Tipping Point State is defined as a state that would alter the outcome of a close election if it were decided differently.
For a thorough discussion, see here. What is the Return on Investment Index? This is intended to represent the marginal return from spending one additional dollar or other type of campaign resource in that state.
For further discussion, see here. States are classified as follows, based on the Win Probability of the Democratic candidate in each state:. What does it mean when a polling result is highlighted in yellow? It means that the poll was conducted within the past 10 days. Do you assume that senate races move independently of one another? Or is the movement correlated, as in the presidential simulations? We assume a small amount of national correlated movement in senate races, as determined from an analysis of historical trends in the Generic Congressional Ballot.
However, relative to the Presidential contest, the movement of individual senate races are relatively independent from one another. What variables are included in the regression analysis for senate races? Five variables are included:. For a more complete discussion, see here. Is senate polling less reliable than presidential polling? This is debatable. However, senate races tend to break later than presidential races.
Therefore, the degree of uncertainty tends to be higher at a given date before the election; a point lead in the presidential polls in a state tends to be more meaningful than a point lead in the senate polls. The win percentages for senate races are determined based on a historical analysis of senate race data and senate race data only, and apply different parameters than are used in the presidential estimates.
What other methodological differences are there between the senate numbers and the presidential numbers? There are several differences:. That is, we place progressively more of a premium on the recentness of a poll as we near the presidential election. This is not true for our presidential numbers. Higher numbers of undecideds indicate more uncertainty in the race and a greater likelihood of these undecideds breaking to the trailing candidate usually the incumbent. We do not directly evaluate the number of undecided voters in our presidential polling.
How are ties broken? Ties electors for both the Republican and Democratic candidates are assigned to the Democrat based on the assumption that the Democrat would likely carry the day in the incoming House of Representatives.
Do you account for the potential for split electoral votes in Nebraska and Maine? Nebraska and Maine assign some of their electors based on the election results in individual congressional districts.
The win probability and electoral vote averages do in fact account for these contingencies. In most states, the nominees for the position of presidential elector are nominated by district and state conventions of each separate political party in the state.
There are a variety of other methods used. For example, in Pennsylvania, the presidential candidate himself or herself directly nominates their presidential electors. Members of the Electoral College are elected by each state and the District of Columbia on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November in presidential election years.
In , Election Day is Tuesday November 3, This date is set by a federal law passed by Congress, and may only by changed by Congress. In Maine and Nebraska, one presidential elector is elected from each of the state's congressional districts, and two presidential electors are elected on the basis of the statewide vote.
For example, in , Nebraska's electoral votes divided , with McCain receiving four and Obama receiving one as a result of his winning Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. In , Maine's electoral votes divided , with Clinton receiving three and Trump receiving one as a result of his winning Maine's 2nd congressional district in the northern part of the state. To that number, we add the electors who correspond to Senators — two per state for each of the 50 states — and add three more for Washington D.
That accounts for all electors, of which any candidate needs in order to get elected. So, with this newly learned information, go forth and impress your friends.
But, most importantly, exercise your right as a citizen to vote on Nov.
0コメント